Xen project Mailing List

This is to inform those people
who do their investment in stock markets or so.
If you do not invest any, just ignore it.

Mon ami(e),

Comment allez-vous aujourdhui?

If you do your investment in your domestic stock market,
then you must notice the difference between this year and the years passed by.
The stock markets around the world seem to be bizarre
according to the technical analysis you used to know, right?
It is all because that
I have been sending out e-mails to over three million receivers
about the new paradigm in investing stock market.
Due of the following information I gonna tell you,
there are more than 20 CEOs of multinational corporation were fired this year,
including the ones of Morgan Stanley, a US-based financial giant,
and the DAX stock market of Germany.
Because the public who invest those corporations render those CEOs
lost their capabilty to do the right investment
taking into acount of the information I sent.
So you better get yourself acknowledged about it.

I found out a too-simple-to-believe way of evaluation of stocks,
that is, the Relative EPS Equation.

E'y= Ey*(Px/Py)

E'y: relative EPS of any stock
Ey: real EPS of any stock in 4 consecutive quarters
Px: current price of the highest-priced stock
Py: current price of any stock

Assume that there are 4 different stocks, x, y, z, and w.

stock price EPS

X 200 11

Y 10 0.7

Z 20 0.9
W 5 -0.2

Which one do you prefer to buy?

With the same amount of money you invest,
you can buy 20 issued stakes of y, 10 of z or 40 of w.
That means you would have alternatively
y's total EPS, (E'y), as high as $14 [=$0.7*(200/10)],
z's, (E'z), as much as $9 [=$0.9*(200/20)], or
w's, (E'w), as bad as $-8 [=$-0.2*(200/5)].

So it is worthier to invest y than x for E'y>Ex, or 14>11.
However it is not so wise to buy z for E'z<11.
And by the way, the cheaper is not all the good.
It is stupid enough to buy w for E'w<<<11!

stock price EPS Relative EPS

X 200 11 11

Y 10 0.7 14>11

Z 20 0.9 9<11
W 5 -0.2 -8<11

This equation can be quoted as a blank-filling in such a sentence-making:
With the same amount of money you invest, you can buy [stock Y]
with an EPS earned as much as [...]
instead of buying [the highest priced stock [X]
which gained nothing more than [...].

It will certainly astonish you
if you do the calculations of all the stocks in your domestic market.
Then you will know the true value of ETFs.

Do remember one thing.
Add the EPSs of 4 consecutive quarterly reports in total
instead of that of an annual report.

However, the real dividend matters after all.
But you can go through the equation with dividend instead of EPS anyway.
Try to think HOW MUCH CAN YOU GET from the bank or the bond
with this same amount of money.

Or you may think it this way,

how much did your rival(s) get

with the knowledge of this message already?
Say, my European friends,

why don't you evaluate the shares of your neighboring countries' bourses

since you utilize the same currency, euro, in the continent?

Good luck,
Senatus Populusque Romanus

cathy20048 à Taïwan
(My wife applied a web columnist for that name)

post scriptum:

The publication of the content of this mail is at
http://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/index.jsp?no=3446

http://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1317233&tpno=0&no=3446&cate_no=0
But since it is in conventional Mandarin, it might not do you any help.

The majority of the web-addresses sent previously
are listed at
http://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1327310&tpno=0&raid=1431860&no=3446&cate_no=0#rep1431860

(periodically updated)

In case of YOUR BUY-OUT of a corporation in Taiwan,
there are some useful sites for your acknowledgement:
(English)
http://fr.finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^twii

http://emops.tse.com.tw/emops_all.htm
http://mis.tse.com.tw/Quotes/MarketChartE

(Streaming chart et al. in Mandarin)
http://tw.stock.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=2342
http://yamstock.megatime.com.tw/asp/stockinfo/ps_tick_java.asp?stockid=2342

http://yamstock.megatime.com.tw/asp/stockinfo/GetReport.asp?select_table=html\bqis\R_&stockid=2342&name1=D5&index1=2

http://yamstock.megatime.com.tw/asp/realquote/quote.asp?menu=usr&marketindex=2&kindindex=0&m=JAVA

By the way,
the highest-priced stock in Taiwanese markets is
the one with a code of '2498' currently.

Pour les gens qui avaient étudié l'économique politique,
il faut rendre cet article

la révolution contre le capitalisme monétaire monopoliste.

======================================================

This following article is on the webpage of

http://city.udn.com/v1/city/forum/article.jsp?aid=1331187&tpno=0&raid=1612844&no=3446&cate_no=0#rep1612844

[貨幣政策無用論]之五> Still believe the monetary policy, huh? (in Eng.)

Since this lesson is also good for the central banks worldwide, I'd like to express in English.

The news in Mandarin says:

李成太升任南朝鮮央行行長
對抗通膨的鷹派貨幣政策路線
Mr. Il, Vice President of South Korean Central bank is to be nominated to be the President and to fight inflation with spiky attitude.

How sorry it is!
The economists around the world, especially those in the fields of micro- and international believe less and less in monetary police which is emphansized in the field of macro-, denoting the domestic sphere, since my article "Just ignore this if you and your friends or your rivals do not invest any." was published here.

A latent evidence to this phenomonon is Greenspan's first visit to China at the end of his 18-year career in FED as a president. That means even Greenspan does know about the overwhelming power of my article. (I mailed to the old Guy three times to ensure his receiving.)

The new paradigm of my article in INVESTANCE, which I prefer to use this term to describe the Motion of Capital, is annihilating the effect of that policy.

Let's focus on the mission of the monetary policy firstly, that is, the domestic inflation. What does it gonna to be if the central bank raise interest? If the interests are raised, people in the state will lessen their investment and deposit their money in banks instead of the potential profit, then the economy cools down, and the prices descend, as every one knows about it in the previous times. But my disclosure of the accurate evaluation of stakes will tell people that it is wrong to put money in the banks for there are targets of investment in- and outsides of the nation besides the low gaining of bank interests. So the capital will not return to the domestic banking system and it will go on investing or fleeing out the nation nevertheless. That means raising bank interest will NOT hold back the investing capital but slow down the monetary flow only. Unless the central banks worldwide do the same job, which is not possible for the economic situations diverse from state to state. The flow is going on and on till the Utility of international capital goes to an average range, unless there is a war or a military threatening.

But the mission of central banks does not come to it untill the actual income is gained in the pocket of the average citizens, then they will buy the final products and the their prices go up. Before the income got in the hand of consumers, they will not dare to spend it since the money is robbed economically by the hungry-like-wolves capitalists during the passed 3 decades when the doctrine of Neo-economics stands.

However the commodity prices will go down before they stand still or go up due of a competition strategy realized by all of entreprice in all industrial and commercial sectors. And since the price-cut strategy get its short-term effect, that is, the sales will go up but the true earning will be more or less the same among the temporally fixed set of the consumation amount due of the not-daring-to-spend, the central banks are forced to cut the bank interests instead of raising it paradoxally.

And since people in the developped nations have been robbed theoretically due of the doctrines of the Chicogo School of economics, this so-called short-term effect is hopeful in sight of more than one fisical year. However, the under-developped and developping nations get their chances to be of proseperity if they do not take the monetary doctrine so god-damned seriously. As a result of my article overspreading, we can see the stock markets of UAE, a state in the middle east, as a matter of example, went up as high as 770% according to the news. Those Arabians did thanks Chinese for clearing their knowledge in economics and making their dare to invest domestically, and the one to be blessed is ME, cathy20048!

Back to the mission. There is no need for central banks around the world to raise or descend the domestic bank interests. The global economy regain its doctrine of Laissez-faire truely. Any monetary measurement done is futile according to my fomula of the "Relative EPS". The prices will not go up thanks to the globalization, that is, the imported goods will flood out the ascending prices if any. So it is wrong to set barriers to international trade if any state want their domestic prices go to ceiling high. But the political considerations such as low employment are to be noticed. So the settle-down of the fighting between the ascending domestic prices and the low employment is in the hand of the governments. However, thanks to the domestic entreprices paying taxes due to the fomula of the "Relative EPS", governments in the world is much capable to support all kind of social benefits. But if those governments trying to cut the taxes will get it, that is, worsening the national fisical statute leading to serious social conflicts. Especially, I'd like to warn the United States of such consequences for Bush Administration is doing so.

As a conclusion, the new sweep of South Korean Central Bank is, as we Chinese say, the Ear of a deaf. Any monetary interferance only jeopardizing the economic situation, confusing the markets according to my article. Any intent to make the domestic interests equal to United States is breaking the elasticity and durability of your domestic economy can bear.

Hell with the Chicago School!

ps 1
Dear Nobel Fundation:

It is your judgment to pick me up to be the Winner of Economics.

ps 2
Try to think very serious about those foreign stakes such in the stock markets of the so-called BRICs states, that are, Brazil, Russia, India and China. What will those corporations be if they get sufficient foreign funding?
More competitive to the old western giants in the same industrial sector? I will say you are right. And that will deviate an another question that it is right for the Giants to merger those companies in the BRICs states? Perhaps. But those giants still need to be downsized as well anyway for they are not so efficient in profit-gaining. The Panel of those multinational corporations might consider much more seriously about firing those CEOs.

ps 3
The next day's AP news concerning with this articles is attached down below.
[GM Buyouts Could Result in Weaker Unions] ,

the micro-view of economics says it here that

the domestic aquisition only weaken the entire industrial.

I could not be more agree with it.

ps 4

In the AD-AS model, which is somehow a little bit theoretical, the effects of my aforementioned 'Relative EPS Equation' in the global markets is enormously powerful if you can image. The total effect of the Equation is creating a Keynesian force of market that shifts the AD curve to the right while the interest rates raising done by the Central Banks worldwide is still on the move, which means that the unvertical short term AS curve is pushed to the left as a cooldown to the domestic economy. In short, AD curve to the right, AS curve to the left, the total effect in economy is elevating the equilibrium point higher which means the price (scale on the vertical dimension) is to be rosen due of interest rates raising. That is why I have warned aformentionedly FED not to rise the interest rates and they cancelled for once recently. But some smart assholes, economists I mean, if excuse my language, try their best to encourage the FED to raise interest rates for the sake of their theory only. That is a stupid move if any economists wish to see the risk and the disaster of inflation. The monetary policy is stumbling down. As the Lord Keynes told us that the monetary policy is to stay where it is and let go the financial policy. The hike of the rates is to stop permanently either to raise or to reduce. Either way is leveraging the Price, such as CPI.

===============================================

2006.03.24　工商時報
李成太下月接掌韓國央行
蕭麗君/綜合外電報導
http://news.chinatimes.com/Chinatimes/newslist/newslist-content/0,3546,120504+122006032400431,00.html

一如外界預期，南韓總統盧武鉉週四提名韓國央行副總裁李成太，接替將在本月底任期屆滿的朴昇，擔任央行總裁一職。經濟學家預期，李成太出任總裁後，基本上將蕭規曹隨，延續朴昇對抗通膨的鷹派貨幣政策路線。

在南韓國會本月稍後表決通過這項人事任命案後，李成太將於四月一日起，正式成為未來四年的韓國央行總裁。
南韓總統府在發布這項任命案的聲明中，讚揚李成太「擁有貨幣政策與總體經濟的廣泛知識，並且結合了實務經驗」。由於這項人事案公佈時，南韓債券與貨幣市場已經收市，外界預估週五開盤金融市場將有正面的回應。

擁有伊利諾斯大學經濟碩士學位的六十歲李成太，自一九六八年就在韓國央行任職。外界原本就相當看好他將是接任七十歲朴昇的最佳人選，因為與其他候選人相較，他被視為最能延續目前央行總裁的鷹派貨幣政策。

過去四年朴昇在採取合適的貨幣政策與在溝通政策上，贏得經濟學家與市場交易員的肯定。

Westpac Banking經濟學家卡洛就預期李成太在接任總裁後，將不會採取極端的改變，因此也符合金融市場的期望。儘管他將遵從朴昇路線，卡洛認為李成太未來將朝向銀根緊縮方向前進，到年底基準利率將從目前四％升至五%，以對通膨壓力先發制人，並與全球利率走升的基調一致。

============================================
On the webpage of
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060324/gm_industry.html?.v=2

AP
GM Buyouts Could Result in Weaker Unions
Friday March 24, 4:42 pm ET
By Dee-Ann Durbin, AP Auto Writer
GM Offer to Buy Out Workers May Lead to Weaker Unions, Higher Sticker Prices on Vehicles

DETROIT (AP) -- For a U.S. auto industry already undergoing a sea change, General Motors Corp.'s offer to buy out more than 100,000 autoworkers will only bring more upheaval that could result in weaker unions, thousands of jobless Baby Boomers and higher sticker prices on vehicles, eventually.

ADVERTISEMENT
"We're going to see major, major changes in the way vehicles are manufactured and who's going to be doing the manufacturing," said James McTevia, a Detroit-area restructuring consultant. "We haven't seen the last of it yet."

Under GM's plan -- one of the largest corporate buyouts in history -- GM is offering between $35,000 and $140,000 to 113,000 U.S. hourly workers as part of its goal of cutting 30,000 jobs by 2008. GM also will bankroll early-retirement buyouts at Delphi Corp., its former parts division and major supplier. Up to 17,000 hourly workers at Delphi could be eligible for a $35,000 payment to retire.

GM and Delphi haven't said how many workers are expected to take the deal, but JPMorgan auto analyst Himanshu Patel predicts as many as 39,000 GM workers could leave the company. McTevia said that will mean many autoworkers in their late 40s and early 50s will be retiring even though they have many productive years left.

While those workers will get pensions and health care benefits from GM, their benefits may not be as rich as they once were. GM is currently seeking federal court approval for a plan to make retirees pay more for their health care, and could continue to whittle away at those benefits in the future.

"What are these people going to do in an economy that's changing when their experience is automotive-driven?" McTevia said. "How are they going to fit into our society?"

The number of automotive retirees likely will grow. Many analysts predict similar buyouts at Ford Motor Co. and at auto suppliers who are struggling with the same high costs, fierce competition and overcapacity that plagues GM. GM lost $10.6 billion in 2005. Ford earned $2 billion, but lost $1.6 billion in its North American operations.

"I think it's a matter of time before Ford says, `Me too,'" said Erich Merkle, director of automotive forecasting for the consulting firm IRN Inc.

Already this year, Ford has offered buyouts to some 15,400 workers, including 11,900 who work at former Visteon Corp. plants now under the control of Automotive Components Holdings LLC, a Ford-managed company. At a plant Ford is closing in Edison, N.J., 33 percent of the 200 workers offered buyouts this year have taken them, Ford spokeswoman Marcey Evans said.

The exodus weakens the United Auto Workers, which has been watching a steady erosion of its membership for the last few decades. There were 622,000 UAW members in 2004, down from 1.6 million active members at the UAW's peak in 1970.

"They are going to have fewer people to represent in their collective bargaining, and that's going to have some effect on their negotiating ability," McTevia said.

At the same time, the ranks of nonunion autoworkers are growing, as companies like Toyota Motor Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co. expand their presence in the United States. While GM's hourly U.S. workforce shrank by more than half -- or 114,800 workers -- between 1994 and 2004, Toyota's total U.S. manufacturing workforce, which includes salaried plant employees, rose 90 percent, from 11,182 to 21,225.

Sean McAlinden, chief economist with the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, said 35 percent of workers at auto companies and suppliers are unionized, down from nearly 65 percent in the mid-1970s.

Still, most analysts are quick to say GM's buyouts will be good for the overall industry. GM has far too much plant capacity for its shrinking market share, which has dropped from 44 percent of the U.S. market in 1980 to 26 percent last year. GM's North American plants were running at 87 percent of their total capacity last year, according to Harbour Consulting. By comparison, Toyota's plants were running at full capacity.

McAlinden said every active worker costs GM around $130,000 a year, compared to just $15,000 a year for retired workers, so the buyouts make a lot of financial sense. If GM lowers its capacity, he added, it will no longer have a glut of cars that need big discounts to sell. That will allow GM to charge slightly higher prices and lessen the pressure on other automakers to offer costly incentives, he said. Right now, incentives per vehicle can approach $4,000 or more.

Merkle added that GM had to take aggressive action because it can't sustain the kind of losses it saw last year, and that action will benefit the entire industry.

"It's a matter of time before GM files for bankruptcy if these issues aren't addressed," Merkle said.

Delphi Corp., http://www.delphi.com

General Motors Corp., http://www.gm.com

United Auto Workers, http://www.uaw.org

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Fw: Just ignore this if you and your friends or your rivals do not invest any.